Favorite Figures
A running gallery of figures I keep coming back to — some for the result, some for how well they ended up communicating something gnarly. Click any thumbnail for the full-size version.
Method
How embedding-dimension (E) and time-delay (τ) choices carve the same temperature record into overlapping snippets for state-space reconstruction.
The full Convergent Cross-Mapping workflow: embed, sample, find neighbors, predict, test against surrogates across library sizes, and choose the optimal alignment.
Holocene CCM
Reconstructed GMST and TSI records (8000 BP–present), with spectral significance testing against AR(1) surrogates highlighting the Hallstatt, de Vries, and Gleissberg solar cycles.
CCM skill (Δρ) across embedding-dimension and time-delay choices, for each temperature/TSI reconstruction pairing, with surrogate-exceedance markers overlaid.
Original-treated timeseries pairs (1ky high pass filter, linear detrending) and accompanying power-spectral-density panels for the real (non-surrogate) time series used across the analysis.